Ozone Hole Back to Record 2001 Size

The hole in the Ozone is not healing like scientists had predicted. Some point to developing countries as the new source of the compounds which are making this a new and stunning reality on a situation that was once thought to be under control.

Original Article

Until recently, it looked like the depleted ozone layer protecting the earth from harmful solar rays was on its way to being healed.

Anthony Saldhana, 35, a mechanic at a repair shop in downtown Mumbai, adds air-conditioning refrigerant to a car.

But thanks in part to an explosion of demand for air conditioners in hot places like India and southern China — mostly relying on refrigerants already banned in Europe and in the process of being phased out in the United States — the ozone layer is proving very hard to repair.

Four months ago, scientists discovered that the “hole” created by the world’s use of ozone-depleting gases — in aerosol spray cans, aging refrigerators and old air conditioners — had expanded again, stretching once more to the record size of 2001. An unusually cold Antarctic winter, rather than the rise in the use of refrigerants, may have caused the sudden expansion, which covered an area larger than North America.

But it has refocused attention on the ozone layer, which protects people and other animals as well as vegetation from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays. Now, the world’s atmospheric scientists are concerned that the air-conditioning mania sweeping across Asia could lead to more serious problems in the future.

As it turns out, the fastest-growing threat to the ozone layer can be traced to people like Geeta Vittal, a resident of this hot, thriving metropolis of 18 million, who simply wants to be cooler and can now afford to make that dream a reality.

When her husband first proposed buying an air conditioner eight years ago, Mrs. Vittal opposed it as a wasteful luxury. But he bought it anyway, and she liked it so much that when the Vittals moved last year to a new apartment, Mrs. Vittal insisted that five air conditioners be installed before they moved in.

“All my friends have air conditioners now,” she said. “Ten years ago, no one did.”

Rising living standards throughout India and China, the world’s two most populous countries and the fastest-growing major economies, have given a lot more people the wherewithal to make their homes more comfortable. The problem is that Mrs. Vittal’s air conditioners — along with most window units currently sold in the United States — use a refrigerant called HCFC-22, which hurts the ozone.

“The emissions of things like HCFC-22: we had thought they were sufficiently in control, that we didn’t have to worry about them,” said Joe Farman, the British geophysicist who discovered the ozone hole.

A recent technical study by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program found that the so-called ozone “hole” over Antarctica — actually an area of unusually low ozone concentrations — was mending more slowly than expected.

Scientists mostly blame chloroflourocarbons, a chemical used in an early form of refrigerant that they now realize was released into the atmosphere in larger quantities than forecasted. As a result, the international agencies now say that injury to the Earth’s ozone layer could take a quarter of a century longer to heal than predicted.

The fastest-growing offending gas that scientists say can be better managed is HCFC-22. Nearly 200 diplomats will gather in September in Montreal to determine how to speed up the timetable for the elimination of certain gases that threaten the ozone layer, in particular how to manage HCFC-22. A deadline for proposals is March 15.

At a meeting in Washington on Feb. 16, Bush Administration officials said for the first time that they are considering four possible proposals for a faster phaseout.

Industrial countries currently must phase out production of HCFC-22 by 2020 and are ahead of schedule, with the United States banning domestic production in 2010. The Environmental Protection Agency is studying whether to ban imports of the gas and sales of new products using the gas by then as well.

By contrast, the Montreal Protocol, which governs the phaseout of ozone-depleting chemicals, allows developing countries to continue using HCFC-22 through 2040.

China in particular is stepping up exports to the United States of air conditioners using the chemical, often labeled as R22, especially after the European Union finished phasing out the production and import of such air conditioners in 2004.

Pound for pound, HCFC-22 is only 5 percent as harmful to the ozone layer as the chlorofluorocarbons it replaced. But it still inflicts damage, especially when emitted in enormous quantities by China, now the world’s dominant producer of window air conditioners, and by India, a fast-growing market and manufacturer.

The latest estimate from technical experts is that the chemical’s output in developing countries is rising 20 percent to 35 percent each year and could continue at that pace for years: slightly over 2 percent of Indian households currently have air conditioners, according to LG Electronics of South Korea, a giant maker of air conditioners...